By Zhang Hua

On the morning of October 10, Taiwan regional leader Lai Ching-te delivered his first "Double Ten" speech, in which he continued to promote the notion that the two sides of the Taiwan Straits "are not subordinate to each other" and falsely claimed that "the People's Republic of China has no right to represent Taiwan." He also outlined the "four unchanged."

This speech, along with Lai's previous rhetoric on the "motherland fallacy," once again exposed his pro-independence stance and his malicious intent to provoke the mainland, undermining peace and stability in the Taiwan Straits. Lai's arrogance stems from a strategic miscalculation of the current situation across the Taiwan Straits. 

First, Lai mistakenly believes that his provocative remarks and actions can rally support on the island. Since taking office on May 20, Lai has not only targeted the opposition parties, the Kuomintang (KMT) party and the Taiwan People's Party (TPP), but has also turned against members within his own Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) who do not align with his stance. This strategy has led to severe internal divisions. 

Instead of seeking reconciliation with opposition parties or respecting other political forces to address challenges, Lai has chosen to pressure, split and even coerce the opposition into submission, a strategy that has proven ineffective. Although a few politicians from the KMT party and the TPP have echoed Lai's calls regarding the "motherland fallacy," most opposition forces and public opinion remain critical of Lai, and there is no indication that the KMT or the TPP will make concessions to Lai in the island's political arena.

More importantly, Lai's approval ratings among the public have been steadily declining. Even polls conducted by pro-DPP institutions show a drop in support. According to a survey published by Taiwan's Mirror Media on October 9, only 51.3 percent of respondents are satisfied with Lai's governance, a decrease of 4.4 percentage points compared to August.

Second, Lai mistakenly believed that this move would not trigger a strong reaction from the mainland. Lai's stubborn advocacy of "Taiwan independence" and misjudgment of the situation on the mainland is an important factor leading to his current approach. By observing Lai's words and actions, we can see that his judgment is flawed. Lai wrongly believes that as the mainland has to tackle its internal issues such as economic challenges, it will tolerate his "Taiwan independence" rhetoric and deeds in order to achieve its economic growth goals and maintain social stability. However, notably, even when the mainland was not yet powerful, it didn't hesitate to contain "Taiwan independence" and safeguard the prospects for reunification, let alone now that China is currently the second largest economy in the world with comprehensive strengths. 

Following Lai's inaugural speech on May 20, the Chinese mainland carried out multiple measures, including the Joint Sword-2024A military exercise, the suspension of tariff cuts for some Taiwan products under the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement, and the release of judicial guidelines on punishing diehard "Taiwan independence" secessionists. What Lai needs to understand more clearly is that the Taiwan question involves China's sovereignty, security and development interests, and is at the core of China's core interests. The central government will never allow "Taiwan independence." Therefore, any measures taken by the mainland to counter Lai's radical "Taiwan independence" actions are reasonable, just and legitimate.

Third, Lai mistakenly believed that the US would fully support him to realize "Taiwan independence." However, the US is only using the Taiwan question to contain China to secure its own interests.

Lai has vocally asserted his stance of standing with the US against the Chinese mainland in a bid to secure US support. To enhance direct communication with the US, he appointed Yang Yi-shan, "deputy secretary-general" of the DPP, as Taiwan's "deputy representative to the US." Additionally, he has actively pursued arms purchases from the US and invited American lawmakers to the island of Taiwan, attempting to gain more US support and rely on the US to seek "Taiwan independence." 

Lai's desire reveals his troubling disregard for Taiwan's genuine interests. In his quest for personal gain, he is ready to turn the island into nothing but a pawn on the US geopolitical chessboard. Lai must seriously reflect on what the US can realistically offer the island of Taiwan. The so-called support from the US is not an act of goodwill; rather, it treats the island merely as a lever to counter the Chinese mainland. This approach risks turning the island into cannon fodder if a conflict really breaks out in the Taiwan Straits. 

Fourth, Lai has a flawed understanding of the international community's stance on the Taiwan question. The one-China principle is a widely recognized consensus globally, with 183 countries having established diplomatic relations with China based on this principle. This clearly demonstrates that "Taiwan independence" is not supported by the international community, and any attempts by the Taiwan region to seek more "international space" will only become increasingly constrained. The Taiwan region has always been an integral part of China and has never been an "independent sovereign state." No matter what the Lai authorities say or do, it cannot change the fact that both sides of the Taiwan Straits belong to one China, nor can it stop the inevitable and eventual reunification of China. Any attempt to provoke "independence" is a dead end.
All in all, the provocative secessionist actions of Lai, as a troublemaker and saboteur of peace, are the biggest destructive factor to peace in the Taiwan Straits. If Lai continues down this path, he will surely be remembered as a figure of shame in history.

The author is a research fellow at the Institute of Taiwan Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn